Be careful with Claims about Migration..

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP per capita

Now I ask you to trust me on this - I have not suddenly become one of Nigel Farage or Marine Le Pen's supporters nor a xenophobic little islander, I can't be a Little Englander as I am of course 77% Scottish 😉.

A metric that is sometimes quoted to the public as being an indicator of "how well things are going" is Gross Domestic Product i.e. GDP which represents the overall financial activity of a country - the size of its economy and it's not unreasonable (but see the link below for more detail) that an increasing GDP can be presented as a "good" thing at a countrywide level. However at an individual level one is often more interested not in the size of the economy but one's own standard of living. A good, but not perfect, metric for that is the GDP per person (per capita) i.e the GDP divided by the size of the population.

FYI  (Wikipedia)

• UK and India have very similar GDPs around $2.6 Trillion 
• UK GDP per capita is around $40,00 while India is close to only $2,000

for more detail see :

https://www.hebalance.com/what-is-gdp-definition-of-gross-domestic-product-3306038

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263600/gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita-in-the-united-kingdom/

How is this affected by population increases 

So let's imagine first a country with a population of 1000 and a GDP of £1 Million i.e a GDP per capita of £1000 which has seen an increase by 5% to £1.05 Million over a year in which the population has not changed. That GDP per capita will thus be:

• £1,050,000/1000 = £1050 

an increase of 5%.

It's therefore reasonable to make a claim, solely on the basis of the increased GDP, that on average everyone should sort of "be pleased"  as individually they are likely to be financially better off.

Now let's take a 2nd scenario where as above over a year the GDP has gone up to £1.05 Million but net migration over the same period has increased the population by 10% to 1100. In this scenario the GDP per capita is :

• £1,050,000/1100 = £95.45 

nearly a 5% decrease in GDP per capita for at least 90% of the original population and hence it could be argued that despite a 5% increase in GDP at least 90% of the original population are worse off.

Now lets take a 3nd scenario where as above over a year the GDP has gone up to £1.05 Million but net migration over the same period has only increased the population by 5% to 1050. In this scenario the GDP per capita is back to :

• £1,050,000/1050 = £1000 

so increased population but no decrease in GDP per capita.

Now finally a scenario where over a year the GDP has gone up 10% to £1.1 Million with net 5% migration over the year making the population again 1050. In this scenario the GDP per capita is:

• £1,100,000/1050 = £1047.61 

so increased population but nearly a 5% increase in GDP per capita.

The point of the above examples is in any sense presented as arguments for or against migration and  has nothing whatsoever to do with racism, xenophobia or nationalism. It's presented solely to illustrate, as if you needed it, that one needs to be very careful interpreting economic metrics presented in the media to avoid being misled and manipulated i.e.

• if GDP per capita has gone up during a period of net migration, GDP will also have gone up, then claiming migration has been financially  beneficial for the country and (on average) its citizens I would say a fair claim to make 
• telling people worried by population increases due to net migration (or simply by natural population growth) it's necessarily "all OK" because the GDP has gone up but e.g GDP per capita has decreased is in my view misleading 
• a small decrease in GDP per capita may actually be a very small "price to pay" for a kinder, more inclusive country with a more vibrant and dynamic society - financial standard of living is not the only factor determining your quality of life....

In reality for the UK apart from the 2008 financial crisis impacts the GDP per capita from 1973 to 2015 and hence covering periods of significant net migration, - has been going up  !