The 2020 Coronovirus Crisis - Part 1 of 3

Why this post?

This set of three posts aim to give a different and more balanced perspective to that being presented in the mainstream media on the current crisis resulting from the the emergence of the new virus, SARS-CoV-2 and the new disease it causes, COVID-19. At the time of writing, June 2020, there are still major gaps in our understanding of how the virus spreads - how many people have been infected by it and how many have died from COVID-19. The various policies implemented by Governments around the world to deal with the impact of this new virus were and continue to be made in a fog of uncertainty and confusion resulting in some very poor decision making that has and will continue to have grave and lasting consequences for huge numbers of people.

You don't know what you don't know

Attempting to understand what's happening using any analysis based solely on official published numbers of COVID-19 related deaths or cases is beset with difficulties since where a death has been recorded as a COVID-19 death i.e. the person who died had tested positive it is uncertain whether COVID-19 was:

• the primary cause of death
• a contributory factor
• not a factor

Also the limited testing and varying approaches to reporting of COVID-19 deaths across countries means we don't know how many people actually have or have had COVID-19, nor how many deaths that were due or partially due to COVID-19 have not been accounted for. However, there is a well understood and established measurement that is not influenced by the uncertainty associated with published COVID-19 statistics. That measure is Excess Mortality (EM) which is simply the number of recorded deaths above the average for a particular time of year. This measure has been gathered by an independent European body of epidemiologists for many across 20 European Union countries. It is also monitored at a UK level as published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The statistics and details of the 20 countries involved and methods used are freely available at :

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Excess Mortality - Overall Statistics across twenty European Countries 

The graph below how shows how excess mortality EM varies year to year and week to week due primarily to seasonal flu and excess winter mortality i.e. more people die in winter than summer. The impact of COVID-19 is shown by the sharp spike in EM starting March.

Excess Mortality - 2016 to June 2020

 
You can see from the graph that currently (week 23 - June) there is now NO significant overall excess mortality albeit there still is in some individual countries notably England.  So, to get these numbers into context we need to consider the total number of excess deaths in 2020 to date, the cumulative EM, relative to the total population of the twenty countries involved . This 2020 cumulative excess mortality up till week 23 June is 194,284. 

Annual Cumulative Excess Mortality 2018,2019,2020 

The population of the twenty countries is 435 Million. So, making for the moment the incorrect assumption (see later posts) that COVID-19 was the sole cause of all excess mortality in 2020:

EM (all ages)           = 194,284

Total Population      = 435,010,967

As a percentage 

        Excess deaths             = 194,284 / 435,010,967 
                                           = 0.045% or  1 in 2239

However, COVID-19 affects elderly people much more severely than younger people with 91% of all excess deaths being in the 65 and over age group. Breaking down the figures for excess mortality by age group, in percentage terms they are:

Age 0 to 14   = 0.00001% or 1 in 7,131,327

Age 15 to 64 = 0.00399% or 1 in 25,063

Over 65         = 0.04046% or 1 in 2,472

A comparison that might help to get these numbers into context is to compare these figures with the risk of dying in a car accident. Assuming you travel in a car regularly your annual risk in the UK is roughly 1 in 25,000 or over a lifetime 1 in 500.

Comparison with Seasonal Flu / Previous years

The cumulative EM graph for the twenty EU countries shows clearly the higher number of excess deaths in 2020 than in 2018 and 2019. So again, making for now the (false) assumption that all 2020 excess mortality is due solely to COVID-19 then in percentage terms the increase in EM across the 20 countries that can be attributed to COVID-19 is at most. 

85% above 2018  and 239% above 2019

These are of course very significant increases.

 At a world wide level however the total COVID death figures published on Worldometer are approximately 450,000 (still rising). By comparison the number of deaths worldwide due to seasonal flu is typically as described below: 

“According to new estimates published today, between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year, higher than a previous estimate of 250,000 to 500,000 and based on a robust, multinational survey.”  

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html 

So at a worldwide level the current figure of 450,000 deaths officially recorded as COVID-19 deaths, albeit still rising, is pretty much in the middle of the range. So in terms of number of deaths worldwide COVID-19 so far is directly comparable to seasonal flu.

Conclusions /Comment

See COVID-19 Parts 2 and 3