Thursday 18 June 2020

The 2020 Coronovirus Crisis - Part 1 of 3

Why this post?

This set of three posts aim to give a different and more balanced perspective to that being presented in the mainstream media on the current crisis resulting from the the emergence of the new virus, SARS-CoV-2 and the new disease it causes, COVID-19. At the time of writing, June 2020, there are still major gaps in our understanding of how the virus spreads - how many people have been infected by it and how many have died from COVID-19. The various policies implemented by Governments around the world to deal with the impact of this new virus were and continue to be made in a fog of uncertainty and confusion resulting in some very poor decision making that has and will continue to have grave and lasting consequences for huge numbers of people.

You don't know what you don't know

Attempting to understand what's happening using any analysis based solely on official published numbers of COVID-19 related deaths or cases is beset with difficulties since where a death has been recorded as a COVID-19 death i.e. the person who died had tested positive it is uncertain whether COVID-19 was:
  • the primary cause of death
  • a contributory factor
  • not a factor
Also the limited testing and varying approaches to reporting of COVID-19 deaths across countries means we don't know how many people actually have or have had COVID-19, nor how many deaths that were due or partially due to COVID-19 have not been accounted for. However, there is a well understood and established measurement that is not influenced by the uncertainty associated with published COVID-19 statistics. That measure is Excess Mortality (EM) which is simply the number of recorded deaths above the average for a particular time of year. This measure has been gathered by an independent European body of epidemiologists for many across 20 European Union countries. It is also monitored at a UK level as published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The statistics and details of the 20 countries involved and methods used are freely available at :


Excess Mortality - Overall Statistics across twenty European Countries 

The graph below how shows how excess mortality EM varies year to year and week to week due primarily to seasonal flu and excess winter mortality i.e. more people die in winter than summer. The impact of COVID-19 is shown by the sharp spike in EM starting March.


Excess Mortality - 2016 to June 2020
 
You can see from the graph that currently (week 23 - June) there is now NO significant overall excess mortality albeit there still is in some individual countries notably England.  So, to get these numbers into context we need to consider the total number of excess deaths in 2020 to date, the cumulative EM, relative to the total population of the twenty countries involved . This 2020 cumulative excess mortality up till week 23 June is 194,284. 

Annual Cumulative Excess Mortality 2018,2019,2020 

The population of the twenty countries is 435 Million. So, making for the moment the incorrect assumption (see later posts) that COVID-19 was the sole cause of all excess mortality in 2020:

EM (all ages)           = 194,284
Total Population      = 435,010,967

As a percentage 
        Excess deaths             = 194,284 / 435,010,967 
                                           = 0.045% or  1 in 2239

However, COVID-19 affects elderly people much more severely than younger people with 91% of all excess deaths being in the 65 and over age group. Breaking down the figures for excess mortality by age group, in percentage terms they are:

Age 0 to 14   = 0.00001% or 1 in 7,131,327

Age 15 to 64 = 0.00399% or 1 in 25,063

Over 65         = 0.04046% or 1 in 2,472

A comparison that might help to get these numbers into context is to compare these figures with the risk of dying in a car accident. Assuming you travel in a car regularly your annual risk in the UK is roughly 1 in 25,000 or over a lifetime 1 in 500.

Comparison with Seasonal Flu / Previous years

The cumulative EM graph for the twenty EU countries shows clearly the higher number of excess deaths in 2020 than in 2018 and 2019. So again, making for now the (false) assumption that all 2020 excess mortality is due solely to COVID-19 then in percentage terms the increase in EM across the 20 countries that can be attributed to COVID-19 is at most. 

85% above 2018  and 239% above 2019

These are of course very significant increases.

 At a world wide level however the total COVID death figures published on Worldometer are approximately 450,000 (still rising). By comparison the number of deaths worldwide due to seasonal flu is typically as described below: 
“According to new estimates published today, between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year, higher than a previous estimate of 250,000 to 500,000 and based on a robust, multinational survey.”  
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html 

So at a worldwide level the current figure of 450,000 deaths officially recorded as COVID-19 deaths, albeit still rising, is pretty much in the middle of the range. So in terms of number of deaths worldwide COVID-19 so far is directly comparable to seasonal flu.

Conclusions /Comment

See COVID-19 Parts 2 and 3 

Friday 26 April 2019

BBC - The New Puritans Alcohol & Smoking & Yet More ALARMISM

The BBC and temperance campaigners and those who just love ever more regressive taxation - ie taxes that hit the poorest hardest are yet again pushing ALARM about alcohol based on studies in the Lancet headlining with any amount of alcohol, however small, being damaging and conflating smoking and alcohol.

The ALARMIST type headlines from the BBC articles are :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47723704

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47817650

Note Lancet Report title is actually :
"Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies"
but that's nowhere near as ALARMIST headline grabbing  ...

#Before rushing off to take the pledge I recommend you read this as an antidote :

https://health.spectator.co.uk/a-glass-of-wine-wont-shorten-your-life-moderate-drinking-is-still-good-for-you/

If you're short of time the summary is :

  • NO - the evidence doesn't support the implied argument that if you're a light drinker stopping drinking will further reduce your risk of drink related diseases 
  • Their own data (but hidden in an Appendix that you have to have a subscription to the Lancet or a copy of full article to read) still shows that moderate drinking -one or two units per day (= 56g to 112g per week) is "statistically" better than being teetotal ..
So here are some figure - firstly from the main report :

alcohol-lancet-2018-Wood-et-al.-dragged.jpg (1298×790)
The figure on the left above shows that among those who drink  the ones that drink the least <100g a week are less likely to die from drink associated diseases and that as you drink more the risk goes up. WOW that's a Surprise!. The graph on the right above even still shows that benefits of drinking about 100g a week on reducing the relative risk of cardiovascular disease.

The trick used by temperance campaigners (my so called New Puritans) to undermining sensible public health advice on alcohol is hidden away in an appendix in the Lancet report and is to exclude teetotallers (and ex drinkers) from the results shown above in the main report.

When these are included you get these two graphs below (annoyingly the are swapped around relative to the ones above) but I'm sure you see the point that teetotallers and ex-drinker have much higher mortality rates  until you get to at least 300g/week or to make that easier for some that's 16.3 pints of London Pride a week !

Science & Belief

The current debate and concerns over climate change and the highly politicised and bitterly polarised debate usually involve both sides invoking in some sense "science" as providing support for their  position. The article below by Dr Judith Curry however provides a very clear exposition of why you really do need to start listening very carefully and switch into skeptical mode whenever you hear anyone using the phrase "I believe in science"  .. as support for their position .

https://judithcurry.com/2019/03/26/why-i-dont-believe-in-science/


Wednesday 13 March 2019

When did Offical Double-think start


The first time I became aware of this was was the sell-off i.e Tory Government invoked privatisation of British Telecom in November in 1984. Most people would acknowledge that if you sell e.g a bike for £100 and the next day the person you sold the bike to immediately sells it for £135 then basically you sold it for a lot less than it was worth i.e a pretty bad piece of work. If you tried to argue seriously that selling it at £100 was fine and you had not made any sort of  mistake, I personally doubt you would get much support except perhaps from sympathetic friends and even they may suspect you were perhaps a bit in denial..

However that's one aspect of what happened with the public BT shares sell off but in on a scale of £Billions and with the extra absurdity of pretty much everyone knowing before the sell off that BT was being sold off at a fraction of what it was worth. The Orwellian double think aspect was compounded by the government calling those who bought the undervalued shares as Shareholders with the associated positive connotations of investment when in fact pretty much everyone knew the majority of private individual purchasers had no intention whatsoever of holding long term shares but would sell them quickly as a "nice little earner" - nothing to do with investment and very much to with short term speculation.

This happened under Mrs "where there is discord may we bring harmony."Thatcher and her Conservative and Unionist party. It was followed by a series of privatisations all of which sold off state assets for substantially less then they could have been as evidenced by in most cases rapid large increases in their share price, but still presented by the government as "successes". Not alas that dissimilar a story to that of the ongoing debacle of PFIs and PPPs instigated under New Labour by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to avoid being publicly perceived as raising taxes - now that's another story.

Anatomy of a Smear Part 2


Smear 2 - Corbyn Allegedly Supports a Terrorist Funding Fraudster


The smear narrative (same culprits as before) in this case is that Corbyn ‘intervened’ to ‘plead the case’ of an ISIL supporting, fraudster Mohamed Dahir living in the UK. A typical example from another of those UK bastions of bigotry - the Daily Telegraph and written in Dec. 2015 i.e after Dahir had been found guilty.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12044641/Jeremy-Corbyn-writes-letter-pleading-for-fraudster-Mohamed-Dahir-to-be-freed-for-Christmas.html

In considering the claims in the article be very, very careful to note the way in which the Daily Telegraph is continually chopping and changing between statements made around the time of Dahir's bail application in May 2015, when he was entitled by UK law to be presumed innocent and those made after he was found guilty in December 2015. The motivation or which should be obvious as supoported via a Q&A analysis of the incident which I will hope will illuminate the distortions of the truth made by the Telegraph and many others ..
  • Did, as claimed by the DT, Jeremy Corbyn write a letter 'pleading' for a convicted fraudster Mohamed Dahir, one of his constituents to "to be freed for Christmas"
    • NO - Jeremy Corbyn wrote a letter in May 2015 supporting bail for Dahir before his trial and subsequent conviction
    • In their own article the Telegraph state it was Dahir’s lawyer 'who again attempted' to use Corbyn’s supporting letter from May 2015 and written when Dahir was presumed innocent, as support for further bail after Dahir had been found guilty - an argument rejected by the Judge.
  • Is it in any way reasonable to expect that in May 2015  before the case had come to court that Jeremy Corbyn should somehow be capable of knowing and /or responsible for assessing whether his accused constituent would later be found guilty?
    • NO - there is no reasonable basis (* but see footnote) on which to expect him to do so and the presumption of innocence and adherence to due process of law are key tenets of the UK legal system
    • Was it actually Jeremy Corbyn's place to ‘intervene’ by writing a  letter on behalf of one of his constituents?
      • YES - It is fully in accord with the official government description of an MP duties see below - relevant extracts being  :
    “ Your MP will generally do everything he or she can to help constituents
    “ ..can write letters on your behalf to officials

    • Was bail granted because of Jeremy Corbyn’s claimed Intervention?
      • We don't know  - that was a decision taken by the magistrates involved who would have assessed his bail application in accordance with legal guidelines as below.
      • It is important to note that except for certain categories of offence the general right to bail applies i,e bail will be automatically be granted unless an exception applies. An exception being when there is (see below) a Real Risk - as assessed by the court - of the accused absconding or being involved in further crimes or criminal activities prior to their trial.
      https://www.cps.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/legal_guidance/OD_000042.doc
        • Also note the complete lack of criticism by the Telegraph and the three Tory MP cited of the magistrates actually responsible for approving the bail application 
      • In supporting the initial case for bail in May 2015 did Corbyn make any statement about his views on his constituent's innocence or character.  
        • NO  - according to the DT article the grounds were that he had "roots in the area" and was 'unlikely /could not abscond ' 
        • Did Dahir commit any crimes or abscond before his trial
          • NO (Apparently) and there are no claims even by the Telegraph that he did so
          • Did Jeremy Corbyn participate in the trial itself or help ‘plead the case’ for Mohamed Dahir
            • NO  
          • When Dahir was found guilty in December 2015 did Jeremy Corbyn in any way condone his actions
            • NO - He rightly and unequivocally condemned them as quoted in the article: "Jeremy Corbyn condemns the actions of his constituent as appalling acts against vulnerable people and wholly unacceptable."
          • Were any terrorist related charges eventually brought against Mohamed Dahir and his co-conspirators  
            • NOT to my knowledge
          • So Jeremy Corbyn did absolutely nothing other than fulfil his duties and obligations as an MP representing a constituent and actually has if anything been shown to exercise good judgement  when supporting the bail application given the accused did not abscond or commit further crimes when on bail.  
            • YES 
          Summary

          A  wholly malicious smear against Jeremy Corbyn simply doing his job - directly supported by three Tory MPs.

          Just some concluding thoughts. What would the Telegraph Headlines been in May 2015 if Jeremy Corbyn had refused to write on behalf of Dahir? I think something along these lines...
          Corbyn‘s pathetic HYPOCRISY EXPOSED as he callously REFUSES to write letter on behalf of constituent  
          Only in the collective mind of the BBC is there a world where a Telegraph headline might have reflected the truth and read :
          Mr Jeremy Corbyn MP for Islington North diligently performs public duties supporting constituent.
          *Note -  Except bigotry and racism - look at the pics of Mohamed Dahir ?

          Tuesday 12 March 2019

          Anatomy of a Smear (Part 1)



          Smear 1 - Corbyn supports anti-Semitism - The 2012 Mural

          The narrative of the Main Stream Media (MSM), Right Wing Press (RWP) backed up by the wider Anti-Corbyn lobby regarding this particular incident is  basically that in 2012 Jeremy Corbyn “supported” an artist who it is claimed had produced an anti-Semitic mural and this is therefore an example of Corbyn’s personal antisemitism.
          The essential facts as far as I can determine them and set out in chronological order are: 
          1.     Sometime around October 2012 an American artist Kalen Ockerman posted something on Facebook don’t exactly know what or exactly when) about a mural of his being whitewashed by Tower Hamlets Council
          2.     On 2nd October 2012 Somehow – (can’t find the Facebook dialogue), Corbyn became aware of this and posted on FB (see link in point 7 below for a Screen shot of Corbyn’s 2012 FB post)
          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           "Why? You are in good company.
          "Rockerfeller destroyed Diego Viera's mural
          because it includes a picture of Lenin."
          -----------------------------------
          3.     On 4th October 2012 The Jewish Chronicle produced a piece on the mural (no mention of Corbyn) including a quote from the artist Kalen Ockerman (my highlighting) that:
           “A group of conservatives do not like my mural and are playing a race card with me. My mural is about class and privilege. The banker group is made up of Jewish and white Anglos. For some reason they are saying I am antisemitic. This I am most definitely not… What I am against is class.”
          4.     On 5th October 2012 the BBC reported that the mural was going to be destroyed because of complaints it was antisemitic (no mention of Corbyn)
          5.     On 6th of October the Times of Israel produces a piece about the mural, quotes around the word ‘anti-Semitic’ to acknowledge that it’s a claim rather than a fact, and acknowledging the artist Kalen Ockerman statement that his mural was not intended to be anti-Semitic as per his quote shown above and including the white Anglos dimension (no mention of Corbyn)
          6.     On October 8th, 2012 the mural was defended as below:
          7.     Three years later 6th November 2015 and two months after Corbyn had been elected Leader of the Labour party The Jewish Chronicle starts an article with:
          “Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn apparently backed the painting of a mural which was condemned as having antisemitic undertones”.
          8.     This article includes a screenshot of Corbyn’s 2012 Facebook post from which the quote in point 3 above is taken and uses a rather transparent piece of disingenuity to obscure the source and motivation for the article by claiming “it has emerged”. No mention of how, by whom or for what purpose it emerged-  but see later how this magical emergence occurred, it’s not a surprise ..
          9.  Somewhat bizarrely they claim “..apparently backed the painting of a mural” despite their own screen shot of Corbyn’s post having nothing about the painting of the 2012 mural only comparing its destruction to that of a 1934 mural.
          10.  Interestingly at this time the Jewish Chronicle only describes the mural as having “antisemitic undertones” and that the mural depicts “a group of businessmen and bankers sitting around a Monopoly-style board and counting money”.  Note the absence of the word Jewish - I presume because the Jewish Chronicle at that time actually accepted KO’s rebuttal that the bankers he depicted were in fact not solely Jewish.
          11.  In March 2018 the MSM and RWP vigorously resume their ongoing "Corbyn is an anti-Semite " narrative (just do a search). Here’s a typical example from the Daily Mail - noting again the use of “emerges” as a pathetic cover for deliberate dirt digging and the blatantly false claim see original post that he “..once defended ‘anti-Semitic’ mural..”
          “Labour fury as it emerges Jeremy Corbyn once defended 'anti-Semitic' public mural showing a group of 'hook-nosed' men around a Monopoly board”
          12.  In a public response on the subject J Corbyn states that:
          “I sincerely regret that I did not look more closely at the image I was commenting on.”
          13.  At least one Jewish individual (admit I can’t verify he is Jewish) does not go along with the RWP narrative
          14.  In March 2019 Nick Cohen somehow (he’s nothing if not persistent in his underlying bigotry regarding Corbyn) feels compelled to get the mural issue into a Guardian piece on hucksters fomenting racial hatred on Non-European immigration (??). He even manages to get “Nazi” in for good measure. Note - you need to read a fair way into the article and follow the hyperlinks to see it )
           Now some Rhetorical questions
          • Is there anything in Corbyn’s original 2012 post that provides evidence or is it even a claimed by the MSM or RWP that they know or have evidence he did more than glance at the mural and hence cannot legitimately claim to be unaware of its arguable use of some anti-Semitic imagery?
            •  NO
          • Does Corbyn directly or indirectly express an opinion on the mural itself in his post in 2012?
            •  NO
          • Can you make any form of anti-Semitic phrase from the 18 words used by Corbyn in his 2012 Facebook post?
            • NO
          • How did a trivial FB post by Corbyn from 2012 just “emerge” in 2015 in the Jewish Chronicle?
            • Probably as the result of a concerted effort to dig up information to use to discredit Corbyn (See below)
          • In March 2018 when the RWP and MSM dredged up this 6-year-old post to use as evidence of anti-Semitism did Corbyn try and defend the mural?
            •  NO - see his statement above
          So, what do I think actually happened?
          Given I think most people, well at least those who may read this blog!, are aware Corbyn is and always has been associated with support for “the underdog” and, if using binary terms, is more anti- rather than more pro - establishment I think it went like this:
          a)    Corbyn saw a FB post that appeared him to be an example of a street artist Kalen O. (the underdog) being in some sense "oppressed" by the establishment (Tower Hamlets Council) and instinctively without too much thought as he’s of anti-establishment tendency posted a short supportive FB reaction to the destruction of the mural
          b)    Do I think he looked at the mural in any detail in 2012? – Probably not
          c)    Why do I think that? Because if he had I don’t think he would have started his FB post with “Why?" (was it being destroyed ). IF he had looked at the mural in any detail he would easily have seen how it could and would by some seen by some as containing anti-Semitic undertones..
          d)    Do I think any aspect of the above provides any evidence whatsoever of Corbyn’s personal anti-Semitism?  Self-evidently - NO
          Why do I claim this provides evidence of a smear campaign against Corbyn?
          Well I think it’s clear that what happened is that the anti-Corbyn lobby
          1.   Simply decided to assume that in 2012 Jeremy Corbyn studied the mural and was fully aware of its contents and the use of some images that can legitimately be claimed to be anti-Semitic
              Most of them Ignored the mural removal/destruction issue 2012 as it wasn't an issue to them at that time exceptions being the Jewish Chronicle/ Times of Israel and the BBC seemed to pay attention to it. There is also a short Daily Mail article on it in 2012 (possibly others) 
          2.   Decided to ignore from 2018 onwards the arguments from the original artist and his supporters that his mural was not anti-Semitic -an argument supported by others one himself a Jew
          3.   Decided to Ignore the white Anglos aspect as acknowledged originally even by the Jewish Chronicle and Times of Israel as it significantly weakens their narrative that the mural clearly is and was deliberately intended to be anti-Semitic
          4.  Have decided to ignore the first element of Corbyn 2012 post – was “Why?” (was the mural being removed)
          a.  Any reasonably politically aware person looking at the mural can see that it contains some imagery typically used by anti-Semites (See below) So surely if Corbyn was aware of this would he would not have asked “Why?”
          5.  Have used ad hominem AND guilt by association attacks that as Corbyn has expressed some sympathy/empathy for Kalen O not even on the content of the mural on but on its destruction  then using their own assumptions that Corbyn studied the picture & hence must be fully aware of its arguably anti-Semitic undertones to claim this as proof Corbyn is himself antisemitic.
          6.  Have made false accusations regarding Corbyn’s clearly stated expression of regret and his claims that he didn’t look closely enough at the mural originally.
          7.  I believe the author of the piece above was perfectly comfortable making his false and obviously malicious claims about Corbyn in the almost certain knowledge he would not be sued for libel - Anyone who dared to do so would of course become embroiled in immediate claims of being antisemitic .

          8.  Also, interesting to note his the use of extra emphasis to support claims : 
          Even the then Mayor of Tower Hamlets, Lutfar Rahman, himself ordered council officials to “do everything possible ..” to destroy the mural
          9.   Why is that relevant you may well ask? – Well because Lutfar Rahman is the 1st directly elected UK Mayor to be removed from office for being found guilty and in 2015 of corrupt and illegal practise and is banned from standing for office for 5 years until 2022 - something a responsible/honest journalist referencing him in 2108 should have have been aware of.. However, the author has no problem referencing someone already convicted of corrupt and illegal practices in support of his bigoted and false claim that “Corbyn is a liar”.
          10  In addition the article clears up how Corbyn’s Facebook post magically “emerged” originally in 2015 – The author now states - “When we unearthed Mr Corbyn’s comment in 2015..” which I take to mean the Jewish Chronicle themselves had unearthed it and had therefore been actively searching for material to attack Corbyn with but at that time were to dishonest to admit it.  I believe this attempt to hide their action provides support for my view their motives are very little to do with genuine, paranoia driven excluded, concerns about Corbyn’s alleged antisemitism.  

          11  No such concern about exposing motives in 2018 - Smearing a Leader of the Opposition is an acceptable form of political “blood sport” indulged in by far too many who should know better.  Alas that also includes the so called more “liberal” press such as The Guardian who are now  irredeemably tarnished in my mind for not only condoning but positively supporting this incredibly viscous "witch-hunt" and their shameful role in damaging honest respectful and open political debate.

          12 Its also a clear indicator of a smear campaign when any achievements of the person being smeared are discounted & ridiculed. That's why Corbyn who increased Labour's percentage of the UK votes cast to 40% in 2017 election from the 30.4% won by Labour Ed Miliband in 2015 - an increase of 31.6% in 2 years (work it out!is still called by the anti-Corbyn lobby a "failure", "liability", "unelectable"etc. In comparison Labour under Tony Blair only won 40.7% of the vote in 2001 and only 35.2% in 2005. When Labour got back into power under Blair/Brown in 1997 they had increased their vote share to 43.2% from 34.4%in 1992  .. Mm darling Tony only managed a percentage increase of 25.6% over the 3 years since becoming leader in 1994. 

          In summary 

          I consider the points above display all the key defining characteristics of a bigotry driven smear campaign i.e.
          ·   Claim that (X) whom you already intensely dislike is guilty of a transgression (Y)
          ·   Vastly exaggerate the actual significance / impact of the transgression (Y)  
          ·    Distort and/or simply omit to mention any facts that don’t support your claim of X’s guilt
          ·    Ignore any counter arguments from anyone questioning X’s guilt
          ·    Use your own assumptions as evidence to support your argument that X is guilty
          ·    Only reference those already of the same mind - however discredited they might be - as providing evidence X is guilty
          ·    Get as many nasty and highly charged emotive words into your claims, irrespective of relevance– “terrorist sympathiser”, “anti-Semite”, "hook nosed" or even better the ultimate emotive word “Nazi”, as used gratuitously by Nick Cohen in The Guardian, will do the job admirably.
          ·    Supplement your claims about X’s guilt by bringing up unrelated claims making sure to get plenty of emotive words in..  (See future article Smear part 2) 
          ·    If anyone questions the real motives behind your claims and why you are so very, very outraged and spending so much effort to publicise issue (Y) i.e the content of a obscure 18 word Facebook post which which took 3 years to dig up, claim you are now acting on a “matter of principle” and supporting freedom of the press/honesty/truth/patriotism – whatever..
          ·    keep lying and distorting the truth ...over and over and over again.. …




          COVID Lockdowns : Propaganda

          Two legs good - Four legs bad The title of the UK Government policy brought in to attempt to deal with the spread of COVID-19 was “Staying ...